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2023/092 - Myanmar-Russia relations since the coup: an ever tighter embrace

TXT

[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]ANALYSE CURRENT EVENTS


Singapore | 21 November 2023

Myanmar-Russia Relations Since the Coup: An Ever[...]ta leader Min Aung Hlaing on the sidelines
of the 2022 Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on 7 September 2022. (Photo by Valery
SHARIFULIN/SPUTNIK/AFP).[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]the Tatmadaw’s seizure of power on 1 February 2021, and the junta endorsed the Kremlin’s
invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

• Coup leader Senior General Min Aun[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]ISSN 2335-6677

INTRODUCTION

In February 2023, Myanmar and Russia marked the 75th anniversary o[...]the Tatmadaw seized power in a coup on 1 February 2021, and Russia
invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the two countries have entered into a much tight[...]only major power to acknowledge the Tatmadaw’s 2021 power
grab, while Myanmar was the only ASEAN memb[...]ism.

MUTUAL DIPLOMATIC VALIDATION

On 1 February 2021, the Tatmadaw ousted the democratically-elected g[...]g of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Forum in July 2022 he pointedly did not travel[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]oad Initiative (BRI) Summit in Beijing in October 2023, even though China has financed
a number of major[...]hina.3

In sharp contrast, the Kremlin viewed the 2021 coup as a golden opportunity to advance
Russia’[...]n to Russia: to Moscow, Kazan and Irkutsk in June 2021;6 Moscow again in July 2022;7
and Vladivostok and Irkutsk in September 2022.8 Min Aung Hlaing has used these visits to
convey[...]sed
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, significantly the only ASEAN member
state[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]ch Myanmar became a dialogue partner in September
2022. 17 The Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (B[...]eed this year to
accept new members starting from 2024, and Myanmar is expected to submit a formal
membe[...]ountries have already derided as a sham.20 In May 2023,
the election bodies of Myanmar and Russia signed[...]d Russia in the international press, in
September 2023 Russia’s state-owned news agency Sputnik signed[...]tay of Myanmar-Russia relations. Between 2017 and
2021, the Tatmadaw placed orders with Russia fo[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]national ban on arms sales to
Myanmar. On 18 June 2021, Russia joined with China in abstaining from a vo[...]ccording to the Swedish think tank SIPRI, between 2021 and 2022, Russia
provided Myanmar with US$276 million in m[...]ntly, the junta has returned the favour. In early 2023, the head of Ukraine’s
military intellig[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]e two countries’ armed forces have become since 2021. No other
country in Southeast Asia has responded[...]ties between the two countries. Thus, in November 2022, the SAC awarded honorary
titles to three Russian[...]ries at discounted prices. Between March and June 2023,
Russian oil exports to Myanmar jumped from almos[...].
According to Energy Intelligence, from February 2023 Russia began delivering an estimated
70,000 barre[...]he atomic
power option was urgently revisited. In 2022, the SAC and Rosatom signed three MOUs45 w[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]ISSN 2335-6677

February 2023, the first concrete outcome of these MOUs was the[...]ed during Russia Energy Week in Moscow in October 2023.48

In December 2022, SAC spokesman Zaw Min Tun predicted: “We expec[...]he Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. In late 2022, in an effort
to evade Western financial sanction[...]58.3 million before falling to
US$34.5 million in 2021.53 In 2022, it had risen to US104.4 million. In the same yea[...]of only a handful of countries to do
so.55 During 2022, the two sides discussed establishing direct air[...]etersburg, Novosibirsk and
Vladivostok. In August 2023 it was announced that from September, Myanmar Air[...]ngon and Moscow with MAI
are expected to start in 2024.[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]adaw’s ouster of the NLD government in February 2021, and the Kremlin’s full-scale
invasion of Ukrai[...]ubs Myanmar Junta Chief”, The Irrawaddy, 6 July 2022,
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/chinese-for[...]RI Summit From Home”, The Irrawaddy, 17
October 2023, https://www.irrawaddy.com/specials/myanmar-china[...]y at border with Myanmar”, Reuters, 10 November 2023,
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-will-ensure-security-stability-border-with-
myanmar-2023-11-10/
4
Ian Storey, “Russia’s Defence Dipl[...]Lagging in Other Areas”, Perspective (18 March 2021), https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-
content/uploads/2021/03/ISEAS_Perspective_2021_33.pdf
5
“Russia says it is seeking to strengthen military ties with Myanmar”, Reuters, 26 March 2021,
https://www.reuters.com/article/myanmar-politics[...]global fury over massacre”, BBC News, 28 March 2021,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56547381
6[...]boosting ties at Moscow meeting”, VOA, 21 June
2021, https://www.voanews.com/a/europe_russia-and-myan[...]etween
Russia, Myanmar - Shoigu”, TASS, 23 June 2021, https://tass.com/defense/1305899
7
“Myanmar[...]goda Replica in Moscow”, The
Irrawaddy, 14 July 2022, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-jun[...]Aung Hlaing”,
President of Russia, 7 September 2022, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69296[...]‘positive’ ties”, Jakarta Post, 7 September 2022,
https://www.thejakartapost.com/world/2022/09/07/putin-meets-myanmar-junta-chief-hails-posit[...]n ‘leader of the world’”, TASS, 7 September 2022,
https://tass.com/world/1503803?utm_source=google[...]gle.com
11
Following a visit to Russia in June 2021, SAC Chairman Min Aung Hlaing said that Russia ha[...]to Myanmar Military”,
The Irrawaddy, 18 August 2021, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/china-india[...]-19-vaccines-to-myanmar-military.html. In January 2022, however, Russia donated[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]a”, The Global New Light of
Myanmar, 14 January 2022, https://www.gnlm.com.mm/moh-receives-400000-dose[...]ons ‘Not Intimate’”, The Irrawaddy, 26
June 2021, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-jun[...]ssia’s Invasion of Ukraine”, VOA, 25 February 2022, https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-s-
military-co[...]National Unity Government, Facebook, 25
February 2022, https://www.facebook.com/mofaNUG/posts/288506130[...]et Putin in Russia”, The Irrawaddy, 6 September 2022,
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-jun[...]logue partners — Kremlin”,
TASS, 13 September 2022, https://tass.com/politics/1506931
18
“Myanm[...]rtages and Blackouts”, The Irrawaddy, 5
October 2023, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-jun[...]as Sanctions Bite”,
The Irrawaddy, 6 September 20232022, https://www.gnlm.com.mm/myanmar-delegation-joins[...]n Minister Lavrov”,
Channel News Asia, 3 August 2022, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/russia-back[...]Regime’s Planned Poll”, The
Irrawaddy, 31 May 2023, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/russian-low[...]’ to its Arsenal”, The Irrawaddy, 7
September 2023, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/myanmars-crisis-t[...]gunning to win the war”, Asia Times, 11 January
2023, https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/myanmar-air-force-fiercely-gunning-to-win-the-[...]an Defence Minister”, The Irrawaddy, 25 January 2021,
https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analysi[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]up Civilian Massacres”, ISP Mapping, 16 October 2023,
https://www.ispmyanmar.com/mp-19/?utm_source=sub[...]junta airstrike that
killed 165”, CNN, 13 April 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/12/asia/myanmar-junta-deadly-
airstrike-afterm[...]ghts Council, 49th Session, 28 February - 1 April 2022,
file:///C:/Users/ijsto/Downloads/Enabling%20Atro[...]n Rights Council, 53rd Session, 19 June - 14 July 2023, Prepared by
Tom Andrews, Special rapporteur on t[...]/files/documents/countries/myanmar/crp-sr-myanmar-2023-05-
17.pdf; “Eyes on the Skies”, Myanmar Witness, 31 January 2023,
https://www.myanmarwitness.org/reports/eyes-on-t[...]ghts Council, 49th Session, 28 February - 1 April 2022,
file:///C:/Users/ijsto/Downloads/Enabling%20Atro[...]r halt of weapons to Myanmar”, Reuters, 19 June 2021,
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/un-chief-urges-general-assembly-act-myanmar-2021-06-
18/
32
“Myanmar Coup Maker Visits Russian Military Aviation Hub”, The Irrawaddy, 26 June 2021,
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-cou[...]Russia’s War Against Ukraine?”, VOA, 11 March
2023, https://www.voanews.com/a/could-myanmar-be-impli[...]rted to Myanmar and India”,
Nikkei Asia, 5 June 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Rus[...]d by Russia in Ukraine”, The Irrawaddy, 28
July 2023, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-jun[...]d by Myanmar Junta”, The
Irrawaddy, 21 November 2022, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/ultranation[...]Dark: Power Sector Challenges in Myanmar (August 2023),
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/6bd0c527c8469333b119d88cc0b8b410-
0070062023/original/In-The-Dark-Power-Sector-Challenges-in-Myanmar-August2023.pdf
41
Data provided to the author by Kpler, a[...]yanmar Pipeline”, Energy Intelligence, 17 April 2023,
https://www.energyintel.com/00000187-900c-dd6e-a[...]tan - regional authorities”,
Interfax, 28 April 2022, https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/78760/[...]spects in Myanmar”, The Irrawaddy, 27 September 2023,
https://www.irrawaddy.com/business/russia[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]’s Atomic Agency”, The Irrawaddy, 13 December
2022, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-jun[...]cial deals with
Russia”, The Irrawaddy, 19 June 2023, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-jun[...]satom signed MOUs in July, September and November 2022. “Myanmar and
Russia Ink Pact on Nuclear Energy Cooperation”, Bloomberg, 13 July 2022,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/myanmar-russia-ink-pact-on-nuclear-energy-[...]peration at EEF —
Rosatom”, TASS, 6 September 2022, https://tass.com/economy/1503597; “Myanmar tur[...]for energy solution”, Nikkei Asia, 22 December 2022,
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Crisis[...]gy
and climate problems?”, PacNet#48 (24 August 2022), https://pacforum.org/publication/pacnet-48-
are[...]er information center”, Nikkei Asia, 8 February
2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-r[...]astructure MoU”, World Nuclear News, 11 October 2023,
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Myan[...]g Nuclear Weapons”, The Irrawaddy, 13
September 2022, h t t p s : / / w w w . i r r a w a d d y . c o[...]its Nuclear Ambitions”, The Irrawaddy, 13 July 2022,
https://www.irrawaddy.com/from-the-archive/burma[...]t to go nuclear?”, The Strategist, 27
September 2023, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/is-myanmar-abo[...]s”, The Global New Light of Myanmar, 5 February 2023,
https://www.gnlm.com.mm/russia-myanmar-associati[...]on Russian Bank Cards”, The Irrawaddy, 29
June 2022, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/cash-strapp[...]Russian Nuclear Hub”, The Irrawaddy, 11 August 2023,
https://www.irrawaddy.com/business/myanma[...]
[...]ISSUE: 2023 No. 92[...]

MD

DS521 I78 No. 2023/92
21 November 2023

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